Snöggar loftslagsbreytingar á Íslandi á Nútíma - verkefnislok í Rannsóknasjóði
Meginmarkmið verkefnisins var að auka skilning á breytileika í loftslagi á norðurslóðum á Nútíma (síðustu ca. 10 þúsund ára) með öflun veðurfarstengdra gagna úr íslensku stöðuvatnaseti. Örar breytingar á loftslagi norðurslóða fyrri tíma eins og þær sem fram koma í veðurvísum er hægt að bera saman við loftslagslíkön til að bæta skilning á þeim ferlum sem valda óreglulegum breytingum. Þessi rannsókn lagði einkum áherslu á breytingar sem urðu frá hlýjasta tíma Nútíma (Holocene Thermal Maximum), upphafi nýjöklunar (Neoglaciation) og veðurfarsbreytinga á seinni hluta nútíma.
Heiti verkefnis: Snöggar loftslagsbreytingar á Íslandi á Nútíma
Verkefnisstjórar: Áslaug Geirsdóttir, Háskóla Íslands og Gifford H. Miller, University of Colorado
Tegund styrks: Verkefnisstyrkur
Styrkár: 2010-2012
Fjárhæð styrks: 20,025 millj. kr. alls
Tilvísunarnúmr Rannís: 100233
Íslenskt stöðuvatnaset hefur að geyma fornveðurvísa af hárri upplausn síðustu 10 þúsund ára. Með því að rannsaka eðlis-, efna- og líffræðileg gögn í stöðuvatnasetinu var hægt að endursegja samfellda sögu umhverfisbreytinga og jöklunar á Íslandi. Upplýsingar sem fengust um veðurfar í þessu verkefni byggðust bæði á viðteknum aðferðum, en einnig voru þróaðar nýjar aðferðir eins og þær sem byggjast á kolefnissamböndum og geta gefið vísbendingar um fornhitastig. Fjöldi veðurvísa sem notaðir eru auka á áreiðanleika niðurstaðna, en góð samsvörun á milli rannsóknaniðurstaðna á veðurvísum mismunandi vatna bendir til þess að hinir fjölmörgu veðurvísar sem notaðir voru í rannsóknunum endurspegli svæðisbundnar breytingar fremur en staðbundnar.
Þrátt fyrir að Nútíminn einkennist af hægfara kólnun í takt við minnkandi geislun sólar frá hámarki hlýnunar (fyrir 8 til 6 þúsund árum) til Litlu ísaldar (1300- 1900 AD), þá sýna há-upplausnar gögn okkar úr íslenskum stöðuvötnum ekki aðeins kólnun í takt við minnkandi geislun sólar, heldur einnig ólínuleg, snögg frávik þar sem greina má tímabil kaldra sumra á 100 ára tímaskala. Þrátt fyrir mjög mismunandi vatnasvið stöðuvatnanna sem rannsökuð voru, sýna setlög þeirra svipaða loftslagsþróun, þar sem upphaf kólnunar eftir tímabil hámarks hlýnunar átti sér stað fyrir um 5500 árum. Frekari breytingar í átt að kólnun urðu síðan fyrir um 4200 árum, 3000 árum og 1500 árum, en náðu þó hámarki á Litlu ísöldinni þegar jöklar urðu stærstir á Nútíma. Með staðsetningu Íslands í huga í Norður-Atlantshafi, teljum við að niðurstöður rannsókna á veðurvísum frá þessum vötnum geti þjónað sem sniðmát fyrir loftslagsþróun á Nútíma og skyndilegar loftslagsbreytingar við Norður-Atlantshafið.
Niðurstöður rannsóknanna verða lagðar í banka samsvarandi upplýsinga frá norðurslóðum og bornar saman við loftslagslíkön sem unnin verða af samstarfsmönnum vestan hafs og austan.
Ritgerðir, greinar og ágrip sem birst hafa um styrkt rannsóknaverkefnið
MS ritgerð
Christensen, Celene Luise, 2013. Multi-proxy responses of icelandic lakes to holocene tephra Perturbations. A thesis submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Colorado in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Science Department of Geological Sciences 2013
Journal papers to be submitted in 2013
Celene L. Christensen, Áslaug Geirsdóttir, Gifford H. Miller, Thorvaldur Thordarson, and Yarrow Axford to be submitted in 2013. A high resolution multi-proxy lake record of Holocene environmental change in southern Iceland from Vestra Gíslholtsvatn.
Celene l. Christensen, Áslaug Geirsdóttir, Gifford H. Miller, Thorvaldur Thordarson, Darren j. Larsen. To be submitted in 2013. Decadal to millennial lake and catchment responses to major tephra falls in Iceland.
Book chapters
Jennings, A.E., Thordarson, T., Zalzal, K.,Stoner, J., Hayward, C., Geirsdóttir, Á., Miller, G. in press. SE Greenland shelf archive of Icelandic and Alaskan volcanic eruptions during the Holocene. In: Austin, W.E.N. and Wåstegaard, S. (eds.), Marine Tephrochronology. Geolgical Society of London, Special Publication.
Geirsdóttir, Á. 2011. Pliocene and Pleistocene Glaciations of Iceland: A Brief Overview of the Glacial History. In J. Ehlers, P.L. Gibbard and P.D. Hughes, editors: Developments in Quaternary Science, Vol. 15, Amsterdam,The Netherlands, 2011, pp. 199-210. ISBN: 978-0-444-53447-7 © Copyright 2011 Elsevier B.V.Elsevier.
Ritrýndar greinar
Miller, G.H., Jason B., Refsnider, K., Lehman, S., Geirsdóttir, Á., Larsen, D.J. in press. Substantial agreement on the timing and magnitude of Late Holocene ice cap expansion between East Greenland and the Eastern Canadian Arctic: A commentary on Lowell et al., 2013.
Larsen, D.J., Miller, G.H., Geirsdóttir, Á. In review. Asynchronous Little Ice Age glacier fluctuations in Iceland and European Alps linked to shifts in subpolar North Atlantic circulation. EPSL.
Ólafsdóttir, S., Geirsdóttir, Á., Miller, G.H., Stoner, J.S., Channell, J.E.T. 2013. Synchronizing Holocene lacustrine and marine sediment records using paleomagnetic secular variation. Geology 41, 535-538.
Ólafsdóttir, K., Geirsdóttir, Á., Miller, G. H. 2013. Evolution of NAO and AMO strength and cyclicity derived from a 3-ka varve-thickness record from Iceland.Quaternary Science Reviews 69, 142-154
Geirsdóttir, Á., Miller, G.H., Larsen, D.J., Ólafsdóttir, S. 2013. Abrupt Holocene Climate Transitions in the Northern North Atlantic Region Recorded by Synchronized Lacustrine Records in Iceland. Quaternary Science Reviews 70, 48-62.
Miller, G.H., Geirsdóttir, Á., Zhong, Y., Larsen, DL., Otto-Bliesner, B., Holland, M.M., Bailey, DA, Refsnider, K., Lehman, SJ., Southon, JR., Anderson, C., Björnsson, H., Thordarson, Th. 2012. Abrupt onset of Little Ice Age cold triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks. Geophysical research Letter v. 39, L02708, doi:10.1029/2011GL050168,
Larsen, D., Miller, G.H., Geirsdóttir, Á., Ólafsdóttir, S. 2012. Non-linear Holocene climate evolution in the North Atlantic: a high-resolution, multi-proxy record of glacier activity and environmental change from Hvítárvatn, central Iceland.Quaternary Science Reviews 39 (2012) 14-25. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.02.006.
Geirsdóttir, Á. 2011. Pliocene and Pleistocene Glaciations of Iceland: A Brief Overview of the Glacial History. In J. Ehlers, P.L. Gibbard and P.D. Hughes, editors: Developments in Quaternary Science, Vol. 15, Amsterdam,The Netherlands, 2011, pp. 199-210. ISBN: 978-0-444-53447-7 © Copyright 2011 Elsevier B.V.Elsevier.
Larsen, D., Miller, G.H., Geirsdóttir, Á. 2011. A 3000-year varved record of glacial activity and climate change from the proglacial lake Hvítárvatn, Iceland. Quaternary Science Reviews.30, 2715-2731. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.05.026.
Axford, Y., Andresen, C.S., Andrews, J.T., Belt,S., Geirsdóttir, Á., Massé G., Miller, G.H., Ólafsdóttir, S. Vare, L.L.. 2011. Do paleoclimate proxies agree? A test comparing nineteen late Holocene climate and sea-ice reconstructions from Icelandic marine and lake sediments. Journal of Quaternary Science. 26(6), 645-656.
Zhong, Y., Miller, G.H., Otto-Bliesner, B., Ammann, C., Holland, M., Bailey, D., Schneider, D., Geirsdóttir, Á. 2010. Decadally-paced explosive volcanism may trigger abrupt centennial-scale climate change: a coupled sea-ice/ocean mechanism. Climate Dynamics. DOI 10.1007/s00382-010-0967-z
Ólafsdóttir, S., Jennings, A.E., Geirsdóttir, Á., Andrews, J.T., Miller, G.H. 2010. Holocene Variability of the North Atlantic Irminger Current on the South-and Northwest Shelf of Iceland. Marine Micropaleontology. doi:10.1016/j.marmicro.2010.08.002. Marine Micropaleontology 77 (2010) 101–118.
Ágrip, erindi og veggspjöld
2012.
Thordarson T, Geirsdóttir Á, Miller G, 2012. Framework for the tephra stratigraphy and chronology in western Iceland for the last 12 ka. 2012 Nordic Winter Meeting, Reykjavík.
Meara RH, Thordarson, Th, Geirsdóttir, Á., Larsen, G Hayward, C Pearce, NJG. 2012. Major and Trace Element Chemistry of Holocene silicic marker tephra layers from Iceland. Geoscience Society of Iceland, 2012Programme and Abstracts ISBN: 978-9979-72-096-6
Geirsdóttir, Á., Miller, G.H., Ólafsdóttir, S., Larsen D.J. 2012. Paleomagnetic Synchronization and Land-Sea Holocene paleoclimate Correlations from Iceland. 42st Annual International Arctic Workshop. Wed, March 7 – Wed, March 9, 2012. Winter park, CO. p.113-114.
Larsen, DJ., Miller, G:H. Geirsdóttir, Á., Ólafsdóttir, S., 2012. Non-linear Holocene climate evolution in the North Atlantic: A high-resolution, multi-proxy record of glacier activity and environmental change from Hvítárvatn, central Iceland. 42st Annual International Arctic Workshop. Wed, March 7 – Wed ,March 9, 2012. Winter park, CO. p.49
Ólafsdóttir, S., Geirsdóttir, Á., Miller, G., Stoner, J. S. 2012. Improved Land-Sea Correlations in Iceland Based on Paleomagnetic Secular Variations. Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 14, EGU General Assembly 22-27 April 2012
Geirsdóttir, Á., Miller, G.H., Larsen, D., Ólafsdóttir, S., Thordarson, Th.2012 - invited Holocene climate extremes: the Little Ice Age and the 8.2 ka event as viewed from Iceland. American Geophysical Union Chapman Conference, Selfoss, Iceland 10-15 June 2012.
Larsen, D.J., Miller, G.H., Geirsdóttir, Á., 2012. Little Ice Age fluctuations of Langjökull ice cap from varved lake sediment. 11th International NCCR Climate Swiss Cimate Research "The Water Cycle in a Changing Climate: Observations, Scenarios, Impacts". 9 – 14 September 2012, Centro Stefano Franscini, Monte Verità, Ticino, Switzerland.
Geirsdóttir, Á., Miller, G.H., Larsen, D.J., Ólafsdóttir, S. 2012. North Atlantic Holocene climate inferences derived from PSV-synchronized marine and lacustrine records from Iceland. AGU Fall Meeting. San Francisco 3-7 December 2012.
Christensen, C.L., Miller, G.H., Geirsdóttir, Á. Volcanic, Anthropogenic, and climatic influences on Holocene ecosystem dynamics using multiple proxy analyses of a lake sediment core from vestra Gíslholtsvatn, southwestern Iceland . 42st Annual International Arctic Workshop. Wed, March 7 – Wed ,March 9, 2012. Winter park, CO.
Geirsdóttir, Á., Miller, G.H., Larsen, D., Ólafsdóttir, S., 2012. Holocene climate extremes: the Little Ice Age and the 8.2 ka event as viewed from Iceland. American Geophysical Union Chapman Conference, Selfoss, Iceland 10-15 June 2012.
Larsen, D.J., Miller, G.H. Geirsdóttir, Á., Flowers, G.E., Björnsson, H. 2012. Climate, Ice, and Mud: investigating the relationship between glacier activity and sediment flux using varved lake sediments, Iceland. AGU Fall Meeting. San Francisco 3-7 December 2012.
2011
Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; Miller, Gifford H. ; Larsen, Darren; Ólafsdóttir, Sædís . 2011. Rapid Environmental Change Recorded in Synchronized High-Resolution Holocene Lacustrine Records in Iceland. 41st International Arctic Workshop, Program and Abstracts 2011. GEOTOP, Université du Québec à Montréal, 290 pp. p.113
Miller, Gifford H.; Geirsdottir, Aslaug; Zhong, Yafang; Otto Bliesner, Bette; Larsen, Darren; Holland, Marika; Bailey, David; Thordarson, Thorvaldur; Refsnider, Kurt; Lehman, Scott; Southon, John. 2011. Abrupt onset and intensification of the Little Ice Age linked to explosive volcanism and sea-ice/ocean feedbacks. 41st International Arctic Workshop, Program and Abstracts 2011. GEOTOP, Université du Québec à Montréal, 290 pp. p. 202
Ólafsdóttir, Sædís; Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; Stoner, Joseph S.; Miller, Gifford H.; Channel, James E.T. 2011. Synchronizing Holocene lacustrine and marine paleoclimate records in Iceland using paleomagnetic secular variations. 41st International Arctic Workshop, Program and Abstracts 2011. GEOTOP, Université du Québec à Montréal, 290 pp.. P.207
Zalzal, Kate S.; Miller, Gifford H.; Geirsdóttir, Áslaug 2011.Tephrochronology and Holocene climate of Vestfirdir, Iceland inferred from lake sediments. 41st International Arctic Workshop, Program and Abstracts 2011. GEOTOP, Université du Québec à Montréal, 290 pp. P.277
Geirsdóttir, Á., Miller, G.H., Larsen, D., Ólafsdóttir, S. 2011. Rapid Environmental Change Recorded in Synchronized High-Resolution Holocene Lacustrine Records in Iceland. XVIII INQUA-Congress. Quaternary sciences – the view from the mountains, 21-27 July 2011 in Bern, Switzerland
Geirsdóttir, Á. 2011. Paleoclimatic studies on lake sediments in Iceland. Glaciers, volcanoes and ecosystems of Southern Iceland. The Third Pole Environment Workshop Sept 2-3, 2011, Iceland.
Geirsdóttir. Á., Miller, G:H:, Larsen, D., Ólafsdóttir, K.B. 2011. Climate proxies during the last 2000 years reconstructed from Icelandic lake systems. XVIII INQUACongress. Quaternary sciences – the view from the mountains, 21-27 July 2011 in Bern, Switzerland
Larsen, D., Miller, G.H., Geirsdóttir, Á., Ólafsdóttir, S., T. Thordarson. 2011. A highresolution, multi-proxy record of Holocene glacier activity and environmental change from the central highlands of Iceland. XVIII INQUA-Congress. Quaternary sciences – the view from the mountains, 21-27 July 2011 in Bern, Switzerland
Geirsdóttir, Á., Thordarson, Th., Miller, G.H., Larsen, D.J., Ólafsdóttir, S. 2011. Nonlinear Holocene Climate Behavior Reconstructed from Icelandic Lake Sediment linked to both Explosive and diffusive Volcanism. AGU Fall Meeting 2011, San Francisco, California, USA, 5-9 December.
2010
Zhong, Y.; Miller, G. H.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Ammann, C. M.; Holland, M. M.; Bailey, D. A.; Schneider, D. P.; Geirsdottir, A.; Marshall, S. J. 2010. Arctic climate response to decadally-paced explosive volcanism in CCSM3. Abstract GC23B-0915 presented at 2010 Fall Meeting, AGU, San Francisco, Calif., 13-17 Dec
Larsen, D.J.; Miller G. H.; Geirsdottir, A.; Ólafsdóttir, S. 2010. A multi-proxy record of Holocene climate and glacier activity from proglacial lake Hvítárvatn, central Iceland 2010. Abstract PP21B-1685presented at 2010 Fall Meeting, AGU, San Francisco, Calif., 13-17 Dec
Geirsdottir, A.; Miller, G. H.; Larsen, D. J.; Thordarson, T.; Ólafsdóttir, S.; Stoner, J. S. 2010. Synchronized High-Resolution Lacustrine Records in Iceland show Non- Linear Response to Holocene Insolation. Abstract PP41A-1614presented at 2010 Fall Meeting, AGU, San Francisco, Calif., 13-17 Dec
Axford, Y.; C. S. Andresen; J. T. Andrews; S. T. Belt; A. Geirsdottir; G. G. Masse; G. H. Miller; S. Ólafsdóttir; L. Vare 2010. Do Proxies Agree? A Simple Test Comparing Terrestrial and Marine Records of Late Holocene Climate and Sea Ice Around Iceland. Abstract PP43B-1684presented at 2010 Fall Meeting, AGU, San Francisco, Calif., 13-17 Dec
Miller, G. H.; Geirsdottir, A.; Larsen, D. J.; Thordarson, T.; Refsnider, K. A.; Lehman, S. J.; Southon, J. R.. 2010.Refining the timing and magnitude of Medieval warmth in the NW North Atlantic. Abstract PP43C-01presented at 2010 Fall Meeting, AGU, San Francisco, Calif., 13-17 Dec
Larsen, DJ, Miller, GH, Geirsdóttir, Á A 3000-year annually resolved glacier and climate record from Hvítárvatn, a proglacial lake in central Iceland - APEX Fourth International Conference and Workshop, Iceland 2010 - p.49
Olafsdottir, K.B.; Geirsdóttir, Á; Miller, GH, and Larsen, D 2010. High-frequency cyclicity in varve thickness in a 3000-year record from the glacial lake Hvítárvatn, central Iceland. Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 12, EGU2010-13061, 2010 EGU General Assembly 2010
Jennings, AE; Thordarson, Th, Zalzal, K., Miller, G., Geirsdóttir, Á, Stoner, J, 2010. Holocen record of Icelandic volcanic eruptions on the SE Greenland Shelf GSA Abstract #181182 - 2010 GSA Denver Annual Meeting (31 October 3 November 2010)
Miller , GH.; Geirsdóttir, Á.; Larsen, DJ; Thordarson, Th.; Refsnider, K.; Lehman, S.; Southon, J. 2010. Refining the timing and magnitude of Medieval warmth in the NW North Atlantic Symposium on The Medieval Warm Period Redux—Where And When Was It Warm? Lisbon, Portugal 22–24 September 2010
Geirsdóttir, Á, Miller, GH.; , Ólafsdóttir, S.; Larsen, D.; Þórðarson, Þ.; , Ólafsdóttir, KB. 2010. Non-linear response to Holocene insolation forcing recorded by highresolution lake sediment records across Iceland Sigfús´Symposium: Leyndardómar Grænlandsjökuls Vitnisburður ískjarna, setlaga og jökla um loftslagsbreytingar og eldgosasögu. Föstudagur 27. ágúst. Hátíðasalur Háskóla Íslands
Miller, GH.; Frechette, B.; Axford, Y.; Briner, J.; Wolfe, A.; Polyak, L. 2010. The Last Interglaciation in the Arctic: Lessons from past warm times. Sigfús´Symposium: Leyndardómar Grænlandsjökuls Vitnisburður ískjarna, setlaga og jökla um loftslagsbreytingar og eldgosasögu. Föstudagur 27. ágúst. Hátíðasalur Háskóla Íslands
Geirsdóttir, Á. 2010. Vitnisburður fornloftslags í seti stöðuvatna. Ráðstefna við Háskóla Íslands 29. ágúst 2010 í tilefni af 70 ára afmæli Sigfúsar Johnsens
Geirsdóttir, Á.; Miller, GH.; Larsen, D.; Þórðarson, Þ.; Ólafsdóttir, S. 2010. Nonlinear response to Holocene insolation forcing recorded by highresolution lake sediment records across Iceland RVoN-2010 School of Engineering and Natural Sciences Research Symposium. Book of Abstracts.
Larsen, DL.; Miller, GH.; Geirsdóttir, Á.; Thordarson, Th., 2010. A 3000-year annually resolved glacier and climate record from the proglacial lake Hvítárvatn, Iceland RVoN-2010 School of Engineering and Natural Sciences Research Symposium Book of Abstracts.
Zalzal, K.S., Geirsdóttir, Á., Miller, G.H. 2010. Holocene Arctic climate change: Spatial signals of climate system dynamics RVoN-2010. School of Engineering and Natural Sciences. Research Symposium Book of Abstracts.
Miller, GH., Geirsdóttir, Á., Larsen, DJ., Thordarson, Th., Refsnider, K., Lehman, S., John Southon 2010 Refining the timing and magnitude of Medieval warmth in the NW North Atlantic. RVoN-2010. School of Engineering and Natural Sciences Research Symposium. Book of Abstracts.
